Crude oil crossed the symbolic $100 per barrel threshold this week — a first since 2022. And it didn’t stop there: WTI touched $113, Brent exceeded $114. The cause is directly geopolitical: the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a massive share of the world’s oil and gas exports transit. Kuwait announced production cuts, and Iraq saw its output collapse by 70% at its main southern oil fields. In total, roughly 20% of global supply has been disrupted for over a week.

Faced with these numbers, the instinct is to look at the price per liter at the gas station. But reducing the oil price surge to a fill-up problem misses the bigger picture entirely.

Oil runs through the entire economic chain

Oil is everywhere. It’s a raw material that irrigates the entire economic chain. When the barrel price spikes, transportation costs for goods explode — maritime freight, road transport, aviation. Every product you buy has traveled, often several times, before reaching the shelf. The bill is mechanically passed on to final prices.

It’s also the petrochemical industry that sees its inputs become more expensive: plastics, fertilizers, solvents, synthetic textiles. Agriculture, a major consumer of fuel and petroleum-derived fertilizers, takes the hit head-on. When oil rises, the price of wheat, corn, and soybeans follows — with a lag of a few weeks.

No sector is spared

Airlines see their fuel costs, which represent between 25% and 35% of their operating expenses, become unmanageable. Construction, public transport, last-mile logistics: no sector escapes.

And beyond the directly exposed sectors, it’s general inflation that feeds on this shock. Central banks, which were beginning to consider rate cuts, find themselves caught between the risk of stagflation and the need to support weakened growth. Asian stock markets have already suffered some of their worst sessions since the pandemic, and US indices are tumbling.

A systemic shock

Oil above $110 is not just a problem for your wallet at the pump. It’s a systemic shock that affects the price of your bread, your Amazon package, and your plane ticket. The entire global economic machine is running more expensive — and as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, nothing suggests the pressure will ease.