My op-ed on La Grande Conversation: Hormuz reveals our energy tensions, in Asia and in Europe
I have just published an op-ed on La Grande Conversation, the online journal of Terra Nova, about what the Strait of Hormuz reveals of our energy dependencies — in Asia and in Europe.
Terra Nova and La Grande Conversation
Terra Nova is a French progressive think tank, founded in 2008, that produces policy notes and reports on the ecological transition, the economy, democracy and international affairs. It is one of the leading think tanks of France’s reformist left.
La Grande Conversation is Terra Nova’s online journal. In a shorter and livelier format than its reports, it gathers analyses from experts, researchers and practitioners on the major debates of the day: climate, geopolitics, democracy, economics. It’s a useful space for bringing research, public decision-making and citizen debate into conversation.
The argument: Hormuz as a revealer of energy tensions
The strikes of 28 February 2026 on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz opened the worst contemporary oil crisis to date: Brent above $120, scenarios up to $200, 20% of global supply disrupted. In this op-ed, I defend a simple idea: this crisis is not an isolated episode, it is a revealer.
A revealer, first, of Asia’s fragility. 84% of the crude that transits through Hormuz goes to Asia. Japan depends on the Middle East for 93% of its oil and has seen its strategic reserves shrink to 45 days. South Korea has had to cap pump prices in emergency. India imports 89% of its oil. Taiwan, an isolated island, imports 97% of its primary energy, with only a handful of days of LNG in reserve. Despite massive investments in renewables, the region remains structurally exposed throughout the entire transition.
A revealer, second, of a French and European paradox. France massively exports the decarbonised electricity it produces, while continuing to import oil and gas for its end uses — mobility, heating, industry. The energy transition is no longer merely a climate policy: it is now a national security policy. As long as electrification of end uses fails to keep up, a shock on Hormuz is paid for in imported inflation, lost competitiveness and reduced diplomatic room for manoeuvre.