“Before the Blockade: Marine Insurance's Relevance to Taiwan's Energy Lifeline” — Global Taiwan Institute
I have an analysis in the Global Taiwan Brief, the publication of the Global Taiwan Institute, a Washington D.C. think tank, titled “Before the Blockade: Marine Insurance’s Relevance to Taiwan’s Energy Lifeline.” It appeared on 14 October 2026 (vol. 11, no. 17).
The argument
What could cut Taiwan off from its gas before any fleet does is the answer to a contractual question: can an LNG cargo still be insured against war risk? An underwriter’s decision would weigh as much as a naval deployment. Yet marine insurance remains almost absent from NATO’s maritime strategy and from the EU’s economic security agenda.
The Hormuz precedent
After the strikes on Iran of 28 February 2026, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed although no blockade had been declared. Insurers cancelled, renegotiated or sharply repriced war-risk cover. Shipowners kept vessels in port mainly out of fear for their crews and ships. A blockade, in other words, is not needed to paralyse a strait.
Why Taiwan is exposed
The island’s LNG receiving terminals all sit on the west coast, facing China, and working LNG stocks cover only about eleven days. More structural still: standard war-risk wording ends cover automatically if war breaks out between any two of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. A war between the United States and China over Taiwan would therefore end commercial cover.
What I propose
- A standing dialogue with the London market, among Taiwan, the United States and insurers.
- A public backstop, along the lines of the US bill providing government insurance for vessels carrying critical goods to Taiwan.
- Early coordination with London’s Joint War Committee, before the crisis rather than during it.
The message is in the title: this is something to prepare before the blockade.